Tuesday, October 7, 2008

Credit Default Swaps: Weapons of Financial Destruction

In an effort to better understand the financial meltdown that continues to batter both the markets and our economy, I have read a few articles seeking to answer the questions: How and Why? How did we get ourselves into this mess, and why are there no checks and balances to prevent banks and mortgage lenders from making bad decisions.

Fortune Magazine has a great article in its October 13th issue called The $55 Trillion Question. The main point of the article is to educate people on a little known and unregulated market of exotic securities called Credit Default Swaps. Credit Default Swaps have “played a critical role in the unfolding financial crisis by ostensibly providing “insurance” on risky mortgage bonds, they encouraged and enabled reckless behavior during the housing bubble. “If CDS had been taken out of play, companies would’ve said, ‘I can’t get this (risk) off my books,’” says Michael Greenberger, a University of Maryland law professor and former director of trading and markets at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. “If they couldn’t keep passing the risk down the line, those guys would’ve been stopped in their tracks. The ultimate assurance for issuing all this stuff was, ‘It’s insured.’”

The bottom line is that Credit Default Swaps are simply insurance against bad bets. Banks and mortgage lenders realized the only way it possibly made sense to give money to someone with a large amount of financial risk was to take out an insurance policy against their default. “It’s sort of like I think you’re a bad driver and you’re going to crash your car,” says Greenberger, formerly of the CFTC. “So I go to an insurance company and get collision insurance on your car because I think it’ll crash and I’ll collect on it.” Warren Buffett calls this financial derivative “financial weapons of mass destruction.”

Another part of the problem is that the market for Credit Default Swaps is completely unregulated—anyone can place a bet on whether a bond will fail. The difference between trading CDS and a casino is that when you put $10 on black 22, you’re pretty sure the casino will pay off if you win. A CDS offers no such guarantee. So when all these banks and mortgage lenders move to collect their “winnings” at the same time, the actual money dries up fairly quickly and eventually they are forced to either write off the bad debt or close their doors—or hope for a $700 billion bailout.

Wall-Street continues to show its inability to manage risk and protect legitimate investments—not to mention the ridiculous pay packages for CEOs—even if their companies fail. As a consumer and self-identified “small fish in the big investment game,” I could practically vomit at what’s happened to most American’s investments—including mine. The big players and self-loathing greed infesting Wall-Street continues raking in millions while we suffer in this bloodbath. One of the biggest problems: unregulated financial derivatives called Credit Default Swaps. I have a feeling big changes are on the horizon. Keep buying and don’t sell your investments!

62 comments:

Alex said...

Take a look at this article and let me know what you think. I have studied this kind of an approach (complexity theory and network theory) for about three years in school. This article is a great intro. For more heavy stuff, see Why Stock Markets Crash by Didier Sornette.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/01/opinion/01buchanan.html?scp=1&sq=marc%20buchana&st=cse

Brian Reese said...

Alex,

Great article. I have never heard of anything other than the traditional equilibrium approach to market volatility. I'll have to read Why Stock Markets Crash.

Thanks for the comment. How was your latest GMAT?

-Brian

Alex said...

640. Took it back in September. Can't say that I am not disappointed, given my performance on the practice tests.

But, at this point, I have pretty much finished the application process. I have written and polished all of my essays. Filled out all of the apps, and provided recommenders with forms and deadlines.

Otherwise, I am just enjoying the time I have to read, once again. Speaking of which, I am reading King of the Club right now, which is pretty interesting. I also have The Last Tycoons lined up. Lazard is going to be a very interesting company to watch in the new Wall Street environment.

As for Why Stock Markets Crash, I just want to warn you that it is a pretty technical book and will necessitate quite a bit of research on the side. However, if you stick with it, you will learn A LOT. And, if you like that book, you would probably also enjoy The Misbehavior of Markets by Benoit Mandelbrot. "Manias, Panics, and Crashes" is a classic by Kindelberger, and is also worth looking at.

I know that you are quite interested in investing, and I have to tell you that the equilibrium approach is done with. A former professor and I consistently compare notes on the research coming out today and what is happening in the markets, and all fingers are pointing in a new approach where econophysics and behavioral economics are taking over. Look into this stuff.

How is your studying and school search process going??

Brian Reese said...

Hi Alex,

Thanks for the great comments and info. I am very interested in behavioral economics and anything to do with investing/decision making. At this point, I partially agree that the markets are moving away from an equilibrium approach. The problem I see is: How do you study & analyze other approaches. I also believe that our feelings, worries, and market news is "pre-priced" into the stock market already. How else can you explain the DOW dropping 200+ points after the Government bailout plan? The reason: Because expectations are already priced into the market.

Studying is going ok, except this thing called "life" is slowing me down. Ha ha.

640 is a really good score. With a strong package, you should set yourself up for just about any school.

Talk to you later.

-Brian

Alex said...

Yeah, I hear you. I neglected my fiancé for about six months while studying for the exam, so now I am trying to make up as much as I can.

As for the markets, I would have to borrow a bit from Soros (whose idea is not as original as some may think), psychology, markets and the reaction of the market to its own psychology is fed right back into the system itself.

For example, the general perception was that no one is liquid any longer and all investment houses are out of money. This belief (which was untrue in a number of cases) led to that very reality coming about - self-fulfilled prophecy, as it is widely known. Witness the example of Bear. Once it went under, people were shocked to find out that had there not been widely circulated rumors, the bank would have done okay given the state of its books.

I don't know if you already have, but take a look at When Genius Failed by Lowenstein. It is a short book, but is quite informative. You will see a number of parallels between LTCM and what happened in the present environment. Here is Lowenstein's own assessment in light of LTCM:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/07/business/07ltcm.html?_r=1&scp=6&sq=roger%20lowenstein&st=cse&oref=slogin

Cheers,

Alex.

Cameron Schaefer said...

Great post Brian, I did not know anything about this financial instrument so it was a great education for me. How's married life treating you? Hope all is well.

Brian said...

Hey Cameron,

Thanks for the comment! I didn't know much about this stuff either until I dug in. Take care!

-Brian

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